With the NFL’s clear commitment to establishing and maintaining parity, a natural disagreement grew between those for and against.
I think most of us agree that the combination of the salary cap and the salary cap floor have been good for the game. Each team now must spend a minimum amount of money on player salaries, thus ensuring that even the cellar dwellers get off their rear ends and compete.
Those against the NFL’s commitment to maintaining parity argue that it’s not parity that’s being maintained, it’s mediocrity. Yes, there were bad teams before all this, they admit, but at least it was fun to watch dominance by a few. In the 1970s, teams committed to winning like Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Oakland dominated much of the league. In the ’80s it was San Francisco and Dallas. In the ’90s it was San Francisco and Dallas again. Those teams were way ahead of the curve when it came to scouting, coaching, and commitment to competing.
What I like about the salary cap, and especially the salary cap floor, is that it all but eliminated teams that simply avoid competing to save a buck. While it was fun to witness dominance like that if you lived in those cities, franchises like Atlanta, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, New England, the St. Louis and Arizona Cardinals were allowed to flounder with no direction and no financial commitment.
The salary cap and salary cap floor change all that. And perhaps just as importantly, the fans now knew how much money their owners were pulling in from fat TV contracts and how much they were either spending or not spending. The books were opened. Since they had to spend the money anyway, most teams went about trying to put good management teams together. The quest to manage the salary cap properly, evaluate personnel, draft well, and pick up the key free agent became more universal.
I believe that what fans see as mediocre play on the field many times has more to do with injuries and natural cycles. The Age of Parity doesn’t look to have slowed the Patriots this decade. But understandably, when Tom Brady is not on the field, the Patriots are bound to look less dominant.
I believe the NFL would improve its product if it were to expand rosters. With the size of the players and the speed of the game today, injuries are a bigger part of the game than ever. You can’t get by with a roster of 45 active players and eight practice squad players anymore. As injuries quickly mount, it’s becoming all too common for teams to have to pull players off the street, thus affecting the product on the field.
But the natural cycles of aging players, ownership changes, and draft order have historically always brought down dynasties and will continue to do so. New powers rise up every year. This year it could be the Cardinals, the Titans, or perhaps the Bills. Yet while there are still teams like Oakland and Detroit who still operate in a time warp, most have caught the bug of competition.
Parity or mediocrity aside, come December, the NFL playoff race is still the most compelling show there is.
Former Bears and Lions quarterback Erik Kramer writes a weekly blog for playerpress.com at www.erikkramerpass.com.
There is a distinct difference between a receiver running a post pattern and a skinny post.
On a deep post (or just post, for short), the receiver drives upfield for 15 yards and breaks to the deep middle of the field. The landmark the receiver runs to is usually the near upright. The QB takes a deep, seven-step drop and launches it high and deep. The ball will be caught anywhere from about 50 to 55 yards downfield. The decision the QB makes to throw this ball is based on whether or not the safety has vacated his deep zone, either by “taking the cheese” to cover an underneath route or by having to pick up a man in blitz coverage.
A skinny post is a precise timing route thrown with anticipation to a specific area. The receiver drives upfield and, on his seventh step, breaks inside on a very thin (or “skinny”) angle toward the middle of the field. It's also called a “thin” post. By breaking only slightly he will gain inside position on the corner and still be able to maintain a safe distance from the safety, who will be looking to knock his head off when the ball arrives. This is why range is so a valuable for a safety. A hard-hitting safety with range like Bob Sanders or Troy Polamalu is able to squeeze the zones on these type of timing routes.
The QB takes a quick, five-step drop and throws a dart to an area about 18-20 yards downfield over the linebacker and in between the corner and safety. The other job the QB has is to hold the safety in the middle of the field with his eyes to help preserve the health of his receiver. This is not an easy pass to complete for a young quarterback. Yet, this year on opening day, on the first pass of his first NFL game, Matt Ryan connected on a skinny post with Michael Jenkins for a 62-yard TD. That was a good indication that Ryan might have a pretty good feel for this NFL thing.
Because I like old, resurgent QBs, I want so badly to pick Arizona to beat Dallas at home--and that's what I'm doing.
But to win, the Cards must overcome a couple of large obstacles. First, Arizona’s defense must find a way to get the Cowboys off the field on third down. So far, few have. The Cowboys’ offense is leading the league in third-down efficiency at 58 percent, far and away the best in the league. Second, what makes Dallas’ offense so special is their explosive running game. We tend to think of the Cowboys' offense being dominated by Romo, T.O. and Whitten. But in three of their four wins they have averaged over 193 yards on the ground.
For the Cardinals to neutralize Dallas’ ground game they will have to play with a lead. In Dallas’ loss to the Redskins, Washington got up, 17-7, in the second quarter, never turned the ball over, and Dallas ended up running the ball only 11 times. That means Kurt Warner has to get hot early and avoid the costly turnover.
AN OLD MAN'S GAME?
Speaking of old, resurgent quarterbacks ... How about what Brett Favre has done so far? Favre turns 39 today.
Happy Birthday, Brett.
With little time to read the playbook, Favre has completed over 70 percent of his passes and has a 12-4 TD/INT ratio for a QB rating of 110.8, No. 1 in the league.
Guess who’s third?
That’s right, 37-year-old Kurt Warner.
Obviously, the NFL is a young man’s game. But Favre and Warner’s success goes to show that at the quarterback position, health and fitness being a given, experience goes a long way.
Erik Kramer, quarterback for the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears in the 1990s, writes a regular blog for playerpress.com at www.erikkramerpass.com.
Bears @ Falcons
Bears
Atlanta’s second-rated rushing offense gets snuffed by the Bears'
fourth-rated run defense. Then it becomes mealtime for the Bears' pass rushers on Matt Ryan.
Ravens @ Colts
Ravens
Colts had big-time trouble against Bears' pressure D in Week 1. Ravens are even better. Ravens need a defensive/special teams score here and will get one.
Lions @ Vikings
Vikings
The Lions will be there each week to lend support when other teams look to turn their seasons around. Vikings, make sure to say thank you.
Raiders @ Saints
Saints
Even though the Saints deserve a break after what happened Monday night, this one will be harder than it appears. The Raiders can still play some defense.
Bengals @ Jets
Jets
Favre has a 12-4 TD/INT ratio. With the Jets coming off the bye at home, even if Carson Palmer does play, the Jets should dominate.
Panthers @ Bucs
Bucs
Carolina’s defense has been the talk of the town the last couple of weeks but those wins have come at home against the Chiefs and Falcons. Taking on the Bucs in Tampa is an entirely different animal.
Rams @ Redskins
Redskins
Obviously the Skins will win here. But for those looking into the Redskins' future, note this: Through five games, Jason Campbell has faced four of the top six defenses in terms of sacks (Philly, Giants, Cowboys, Arizona). In the five games he’s only been sacked eight times and has yet to throw an interception. This kid’s got something.
Miami @ Houston
Dolphins
While the Wildcat offense has gotten all the attention for springboarding Miami’s recent surge, it’s the Dolphin defense that has gone overlooked.
In the last two games it has held the Pats and Chargers to 215 and 202 yards of total offense, respectively. All the while, Pennington has been the perfect point guard.
Jags @ Denver
Denver
Though Denver has some injuries, namely TE Tony Sheffler and WR Eddie Royal, the Broncos are getting their home field swagger back. Though they aren’t to the level Elway’s Broncos were 1996–98, when they went 24-0 at home, Cutler’s Broncos have won their last six at home, including three this year.
Cowboys @ Cardinals
Cardinals
The Cards are knocking at the door of the contenders. They arrived at the party last week against the Bills. This week they have a chance to crash it in against the Cowboys. Dallas has many questions surrounding their secondary and this will not be the week they find the answers.
Eagles @ 49ers
Eagles
I almost always take a good team in a must-win situation. And the Eagles are definitely in one against a team they should beat.
Packers @ Seahawks
Seattle
Two banged up QBs. Two struggling defenses. However, Seattle’s starting receivers are starting to trickle back into the lineup. If you’ve never been there to experience it, take it from me, Seattle’s 12th man is impressive. I’ll give the nod to the Seahawks.
Patriots @ Chargers
Chargers
I’ll stick to the “good team in a must-win situation against a beatable opponent” theory here. Also, the Patriots have stayed out on the West Coast since last week’s game in San Francisco. I’ve always believed that puts the visiting team at a great disadvantage for the second game.
Giants @ Browns
Giants
No stats here. The Giants simply believe they will beat anybody. I’m not sure Cleveland believes it can beat anybody. Giants in a rout.
The loudest argument for the Packers going with Brett Favre was that he gave the Packers the best chance to win the Super Bowl this year. In fact, many experts said that was a given.
But I’ve contended all along that Aaron Rodgers, not Favre, is the QB that can take the Packers the furthest this year—and for years to come. At the end of last season, while Favre was solid statistically, he looked old and withered in the two biggest games of the year: the Dallas game and the NFC Championship game against the Giants.
Against Dallas in Week 13, both teams were 11-1 and the outcome was likely to determine home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. It was the first time in several years that Favre and Green Bay were involved in such a meaningful regular-season game and it happened to be on Monday Night Football. To that point in the season, the Packers were successful in large part because Favre had toned down his gunslinger mentality and started to trust the rest of his team to make enough plays to win games.
On that night in Dallas, however, the old Favre showed up and took chances early and often, resulting in a 5-for-14, two-interception performance and a loss.
In the bitter cold of Lambeau Field, where part of Favre’s legend was built as the best cold weather QB in the game, Favre definitely looked affected by the elements. His timing looked off all day and he repeatedly put the ball up for grabs. And in the end, it was his risky decision making that resulted in the interception that sealed the Packers’ fate and kept the Packers out of the Super Bowl.
Over the summer, Rodgers weathered his first test by solidly and steadily dealing with the Favre comeback storm throughout training camp. And through Week 2, he has performed exactly as those in the organization hoped and expected he would.
Say what you will about the handling of the situation by the Packers, but Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson knew exactly what they had in Rodgers these last three years. Why else would they have been so quick and confident to move on after Favre’s retirement announcement?
Personally, I felt the Packers should have given Favre his release and let him go to whatever team he wanted. Favre chose to fight the battle publicly and it was dangerously close to dividing the locker room and had already divided the Packer nation he helped to resurrect. The effort it took to battle Favre and keep him from going to another NFC Central team seemed too steep a price to pay for potentially draining the team from concentrating all of its efforts on heading in a new direction and taking another run at the Super Bowl.
Favre will turn 39 this year. How many old superstar QBs change teams this late in their careers and ever do much with the new team? I can’t think of any. See Namath, Unitas, Montana. But the bottom line is, the decision to let Favre go was the right one. We’ve all heard the NFL axiom that it’s better to cut a veteran one year too early than one year too late…even superstar Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
And though the season is only two weeks old, Aaron Rodgers has demonstrated the type of play that has the Packer faithful talking playoffs already. It’s been obvious when you watch him play why he is the 5th-rated QB in the league after two games.
To start the season, Rodgers has shown the athleticism and improvisational skills that marked Favre’s first 10 or 11 years. Twice in two games inside the red zone, he has escaped the rush and hit his receivers for touchdowns. And so far, his escapability has come with solid decision making. He has been sacked only once and has yet to be intercepted. His ability to make the defense cover the entire field has also been evident. He is 2-for-3 on throws where the ball travels 41 or more yards in the air. He will surely hit his share of home runs this year.
Go a little deeper inside the numbers and you’ll see what kind of trust and confidence Rodgers is building with Mike McCarthy. Look at these three areas where a QB has to prove himself: third down, in the red zone, facing the blitz. The Packers have had 24 3rd downs. McCarthy has called 20 passes and Rodgers has completed 14 of them. Three of Rodgers’ four TDs have come in the red zone, with no INTs. In the face of the blitz he is 11-for-15. As a coach, when you get production out of your QB in those areas, the playbook will expand rapidly. And with the weapons the Packers have, this could develop into a very explosive offense.
The Packers were the youngest team in the league last year when they made it to the NFC championship game. They are again this year and have their QB of the future, who will likely lead them through a string of contending years, possibly starting this year.
That’s why Aaron Rodgers at quarterback gives the Packers their best chance for getting to the Super Bowl—not only this year, but for years to come.
Former Bears and Lions quarterback Erik Kramer writes a regular blog for playerpress.com at www.erikkramerpass.com.
Chiefs @ Carolina: Carolina
I don’t see a Chiefs pass rush to slow down Delhomme-to-Smith
Chicago @ Detroit: Bears
Bears are turning into a solid team
Atlanta @ Green Bay: Atlanta
Even if Rodgers does play, the rest of the Packers are a M*A*S*H unit
San Diego @ Miami: Chargers
Miami has certainly improved, but the Chargers are for real
Seattle @ NY Giants: Giants
Time to give the Giants some respect. Counting 2007 they’ve won nine in a row, including the Super Bowl, and the Seahawks hate traveling out of the Pacific time zone
Washington @ Philly: Redskins
With Washington winning in Dallas last week, this will be the 2nd of many upsets within the NFC East Division
Tennessee @ Baltimore: Titans
With all the bodies Tennessee’s defense gets into the opponent’s backfield, hopefully there’s room enough for Flacco in the pocket…but I doubt it.
Indy @ Houston: Indy
Houston is desperate for a win, but with the bye Indy has had some time to heal. Indy’s C game may still be good enough in Houston
Tampa Bay @ Denver: Denver
Denver’s defense makes everyone nervous, but so does Tampa’s offense. I’ll take Denver at home
Buffalo @ Arizona: Cards
Sorry Buffalo. No one goes undefeated and Arizona is at home where it was good last year and the Cards are desperate for a win.
New England @ San Francisco: 49ers
Going with Mike Martz/JT O’Sullivan is no doubt risky, especially considering the Pats are coming off a bye. But Matt Cassel still has to show he belongs
Cincinnati @ Dallas: Cowboys
Let’s see…Palmer not at full strength even if he plays…Super Bowl contender at home after losing to rival the previous week...I’d say that’s a recipe for a blowout.
Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville: Jags
Who’s going to get you 100 yards rushing for the Steelers? And until further notice, Garrard is now Mr. Clutch.
Minnesota @ New Orleans: Vikings
Will the Saints ever get all their weapons on the field at the same time this year? If they do, watch out, but until then they’ll be up and down. Minnesota does not want to see its season slip away just yet.
YOUTH IS SERVED
Two QBs drafted in the first round this year, Matt Ryan of the Falcons and Joe Flacco of the Ravens, have impressed me. The most essential quality to be a successful NFL QB today is decisiveness…the ability to read defenses clearly and the confidence to pull the trigger with anticipation. If a QB can’t pass that test, his other positive qualities won’t matter.
Being a quarterback in the NFL is like being a fighter pilot. For a fighter pilot inside the cockpit, hesitation is not an option. The same is true for quarterbacks in the pocket. For that reason, defensive coordinators salivate when they get to play a rookie QB. My second start in the NFL came in 1991 for the Lions against the Buccaneers. Their defensive coordinator was Floyd Peters, who coached an attacking style of defense. But for me, he unloaded every blitz he’d ever dreamed of. I remember seeing at least six or seven different blitz schemes in the first two series. It seemed like there were 13 or 14 defenders out there.
As a young QB, when you encounter rapid fire coming at you in ways you haven’t seen before, hesitation is inevitable. Managing that uncertainty until the confidence comes is part of the growth process for any young QB. But so far, Ryan and Flacco have looked poised beyond their years.
Flacco has taken the giant step from the University of Delaware to the NFL in unflappable stride. I’ve seen him coolly stand in the face of the blitz, knowing where his hot receiver is and calmly throwing him the ball.
And Ryan’s decisiveness showed on his first pass of the year against the Lions when he was patient enough to keep the safety in the middle of the field with his eyes during the drop and throw a precisely anticipated dart to Michael Jenkins on a skinny post for a 62-yard touchdown. It was the kind of throw you can’t make without supreme confidence and anticipation…something not usually seen on a rookie QB’s first career pass.
Sure they’re both going to stub their toes a lot this year. There are very tough schedules ahead for both. But so far, they’ve passed every test.
SIGNING CEDRIC
How can an organization with a black eye from past player misconduct issues acquire Cedric Benson?
It just goes to show that Marvin Lewis is not the one calling the shots in the Cincinnati Bengals organization.
All coaches know the significance of establishing and maintaining player discipline. Lack of discipline will shred any sense of team in a locker room. Without it, all you have is a group of individuals that get dressed in the same room. But a true team plays for each other.
When the Bengals played the Ravens in Week 1, there was little team spirit demonstrated by Cincinnati. The defense provided little resistance to the Ravens ballcarriers, who easily broke half-hearted tackles on their way to the end zone.
I couldn’t imagine Bill Parcells, Tom Coughlin, or Bill Belichick welcoming more of this type of character into the locker room. To bring a player with questionable character issues, like Cedric Benson, to a team full of questionable characters in mid-year—keeping in mind Benson’s total lack of on-field production when he was with the Bears—seems ludicrous.
There’s no way Marvin has ever been given the power to discipline players like he should. If he had, stronger messages would have been delivered long ago.
In Cinci, since there is no upper management over the head coach, the ownership is clearly at fault here.
TAKING ON T.O.
Terrell Owens is once again taking his frustrations with others to the media.
This time, his QB (Tony Romo) and play-caller (Jason Garrett) aren’t getting him the ball enough.
Not that he has ever been one to take accountability for his part in a team’s loss.
But rather than just assume that T.O. is the dominant receiver he once was, because he says he is, let’s look at one of the possible reasons that he’s not getting the ball more.
The reality is that, in his 13th year at age 36, his skills are on the decline. In Owens’ second year in the NFL, the 49ers released Jerry Rice and built their passing game around Owens. His rare combination of strength, speed, and determination couldn’t be matched by any cornerback in the league. But as I watched him last week vs. the Redskins, throughout the first half he was blanketed by the Washington corners, Fred Smoot and Carlos Rogers. Neither has ever been an All-Pro.
And these were 1-on-1 situations, not double coverage like Deion Sanders explained away after the game on NFL Network.
Contrary to Owens’ complaints after the game, Romo was looking his way early, but T.O. just wasn’t getting open. The bottom line is that he wasn’t able to create separation.
In the second half, the Cowboys moved T.O. around with motion and formation changes and he was able to find some open holes in the defense. But 1-on-1, he does not look like the dominant player he was a few years ago.
The interesting thing from here will be how Jerry Jones and the Cowboys handle T.O. if he continues to complain and continues to show that he is no longer a dominant receiver.
DAVID GARRARD: MR. CLUTCH
David Garrard has made the transition from game manager last year to clutch QB.
Last year, the Jags’ running game was 2nd in the NFL. This year, it has dropped to 12th. That means that in 2007, Garrard simply had to not lose games for the Jags to be successful, and in 12 starts last year he put together two game-winning drives.
But without the dominant running game, Garrard will have to pick up more of the slack this season. After only four games he’s already put together two game-winning drives, in back-to-back weeks, and has completed 67% of his passes.
Two weeks ago in Indy, Garrard helped the Jags salvage their season by engineering a last-minute drive resulting in a Josh Scobee field goal that saved them from an 0-3 start and potentially being removed from the playoff picture.
This past week vs. the Texans he did it again, not only with his arm but with his legs.
The Jags now have something few teams have…a QB who comes through in the clutch. And any team that plays like it is never out of a game is a dangerous team. That’s what the Jags have become.
Former Bears and Lions quarterback Erik Kramer writes a regular blog for playerpress.com at www.erikkramerpass.com.
Kansas City at Atlanta
Pick: Chiefs
Strictly a gut feeling…the battle of the rebuilders
Oakland at Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo
Solid up-and-comer vs. War of the Roses
Tampa Bay at Chicago
Pick: Chicago
Two evenly matched teams. So I’ll go with my Bears and home field advantage.
Houston at Tennessee
Pick: Tennessee
If Shaub thought he had I tough against Pittsburgh in Week 1, this could be worse.
Carolina at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
A good team with its back against the wall at home typically responds.
Miami at New England
Pick: New England
Cassel looks solid and the regular season unbeaten streak is alive at 20. In Miami, they are already calling for rookie QB Chad Henne to replace Pennington.
Cincinnati at NY Giants
Pick: Giants
Giants have too much confidence. Cincy has too many distractions.
Arizona at Washington
Pick: Arizona
Warner has yet to throw an interception, and arguably the NFL’s best receiver tandem emerging O-Line, solid D. The Cards will win the NFC West and possibly more. Washington will perform like a Richter scale all season.
Detroit at San Francisco
Pick: 49ers
Detroit is abysmal everywhere you look. If O’Sullivan can avoid the big mistake it shouldn’t be close. Just hand it to Gore.
St. Louis at Seattle
Pick: Seattle
Rams are scoring 8 pts a game and giving up 39…next
New Orleans at Denver
Pick: Denver
Denver is scoring 40 pts per game and the Saints are without a running game to slow things down.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles
If Philly can medically survive the NFC East, they are my pick to go to the NFC Championship Game. Roethlisberger is gutting out a separated passing shoulder. The way Philly scores he will struggle to keep up.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Pick: Indy
The Colts might not be what they were, but the O Line should get a boost with the expected return of C Jeff Saturday. Jacksonville looks big and clunky on offense.
Cleveland at Baltimore
Pick: Cleveland
Cleveland is too good on offense to be playing this bad. Although Flacco played well enough in Week 1, I find it tough to rely on rookie QBs.
Dallas at Green Bay
Pick: Green Bay
So far Aaron Rodgers has passed every test. Packers are at home and Dallas seems ripe to be beat. Philly was in position to put them away last week. Dallas secondary looks to still have issues.
NY Jets at San Diego
Pick: Chargers
How do you go against Phillip Rivers right now (fellow NC State QB...that’s right baby!). Yes, the Charger defense has been absent, but even with Favre, the Jets are still average.